The new US strategy in the region and its impact on the future of AQ and ISIS.
The new American strategy in the region and its impact on the future of Al-Qaedah and the Islamic state.
السياسي المتقاعد (@ALseaase)
In the name of Allah the Most Merciful
The first episode:
After the events of 9/11, America entered in to the Muslim world with its armies and fighting jets. It ignited the earth with Jihad and resistance. And after the famous siege of Tora Bora, hundreds of Mujahideen withdrew to open the gates of hell for America and its allies: in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Morocco and Somalia.
America tried in vain to extinguish the flame of jihad, and to besiege the jihadist tide, but it did not succeed. And every time America increased its military intervention, it increased their economic bleeding. Until after a decade America reached a state of economic collapse, it was not able anymore to keep up these military campaigns. So their politicians decided it was necessary to withdraw from the region, to preserve what remains of America’s power.
Obama was elected, and it was asked from him to achieve a quick victory, even if it was a media one, so that they were able to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq. The Obama administration tried to achieve a military victory by increasing its US forces but it failed. Then it tried to end the war by intensifying its intelligence war, but they failed again.
After years of attempts the intelligence service was finally able to locate Sheikh Usama. They killed him in Abbottabad. America took advantage of this media victory to start a gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan. And promoted in their media: Al-Qaedah has ended with the death of its founder Usama bin Laden. Years passed after the martyrdom of Shaykh Usama, but the danger of Al-Qaedah did not end.
Rather its danger only increased after the events of the Arab Spring, Al-Qaedah has been able to blend into the revolutions of the peoples, and began to direct them toward the goals outlined by the organization’s leadership. It was able to exploit the chaos in a very short period, to achieve battlefield and moral victories in Libya, Yemen, Tunisia and Syria. America became perplexed, it felt that the battle with this organization will not end that easily. It had to come up with a new strategy to end this big dilemma forever.
The American dilemma with Al-Qaedah lies in the fact that Al-Qaedah depends in its war with the West on the strategic principle of striking the head of the snake. The head of the snake being America.
America is according to Al-Qaedah responsible for installing the thrones of tyrants in the Muslim world, and it is the one who is protecting Israel, and it is the one who is weaving plots against the establishment of an Islamic state. So it is not possible to liberate the Muslim world from the Crusader domination before overthrowing the tyrant of this age America. Because of this they see the fight against the tyrant governments as a waste of time and a waste of effort. It will prolong the life of the Western domination over the Muslim world.
Especially because Muslim peoples still don’t understand the principle of striking the tyrants. Based on this understanding they (Al-Qaedah) postponed side battles with local enemies (governments, Rawafid, secularist) until after the fall of America or its decline.
So they do not enter in these side battles, except in necessity, because Al-Qaedah believes that the local enemies are nothing but: Puppet in the hands of America. They move them how they want, and overthrowing those who moves them is the most important thing. And after overthrowing America and the end of its role in the region, then comes the role of the agents and lackeys. So because of this strategy America is keen to destroy the infrastructure of Al-Qaedah, and placed on its list of goals: all the icons who adopt this strategy.
Eliminating these icons means potentially changing this original strategy of the organization in to a new strategy, formulated in the dungeons of the intelligence services!
The West has been subjected to the worst historical stage, since the Second World War. Because the organization of Al-Qaedah transferred the battle from the lands of the Muslims into the Western countries. Al-Qaedah has thereby been able to transfer the destruction and killing.
From the streets of Afghanistan and Iraq to the streets of Washington, London, Madrid and Paris! They were able to transfer the terror in the hearts of the Muslim women and children to the hearts of women and children of the Crusaders. While our children looked at nearing bombardments and the children of the west being safe, both of them began to live in terror, killing and displacement. This is the strategy that kept America and Europe awake! Until they desperately sought to change it and tried to erase this mentality from the Jihadi movement.
The United States, along with Western countries, know with certainty that continuing the battle directly with the Mujahideen will drain them economically and will expose them to collapse. And they know that leaving and their withdrawal from the region before eliminating the organization of Al-Qaedah, and before eliminating their strategy, will increase the danger. And it will leave their dominance in the Islamic world in jeopardy. Therefore they saw that the need has become urgent for the start of a new strategy to get out of the region in safety.
The new US strategy must achieve its specific goal, which is: Create chaos within the Muslim countries, and ignite a sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites. And if not in a sectarian Shia country, they will ignite war between: Islamic movements and parties (1.), or revive tribalism and regionalism. So that the Mujahideen will be preoccupied with these grinding wars, and neglect thinking about striking America and the West.
This strategy has succeeded in Yemen, after America gave away Yemen to the Houthis, which made the organization of Al-Qaedah busy itself with the war against them, apart from other goals they had adopted. And the organization of Al-Qaedah did good by singling out the sectarianism of Zaidism from the battle, and made its battle against the Houthi militias only. Though America will not stop until it triggered a sectarian war which eats everything and everybody, by directing those who target the general Zaidi people in their markets and places of worship. (2.)
But the question arises: What is the link between America’s war with Al-Qaedah and its production of a new strategy to deal with the case of terrorism?
The link between this and that, is that America wants to withdraw from the region militarily, but it knows that the decision to withdraw would be a disaster for them, and for Israel and the West. That’s why it is necessary for the US to rearrange the situation in the region, to ensure itself from the danger from Al-Qaedah before its military withdrawal. To achieve this goal it is necessary for the US to achieve two important things. The first thing: To embroil the Mujahideen in a raging endless war with the Shia. Which consumes their strength and energy, and which prevents them from thinking of attacking America or Israel.
The second thing: is to convince the Mujahideen of Al-Qaedah and Jihadi movement, not to return to the old strategy of the organization, presented in: striking the head of the snake. And to convince them of a new strategy, which suites the US post-withdrawal stage from the region.
In order for America to succeed in achieving the first point: Igniting a fierce war with the Shia. It will take two dangerous steps:
- Enable and support the Rawafid in gaining control of power in the Sunni countries, in which Shia sects are present, such as Yemen and Saudi Arabia. To copy the successful experience of igniting sectarian war in Iraq after giving the Rawafid power in it. (3.)
- Bombing the places of worship and markets of the Shia and their places of gathering, by their Blackwater mercenaries, and then accusing the Mujahideen, and such operations already have been carried out before in Iraq and Pakistan.
They will stop using Blackwater when the Mujahideen are fooled by the new strategy, then this task will be completed by the naive Muslim youth instead of Blackwater. And we note that America has already started to implement this in Yemen, where it gave the power to the Houthis and it succeeded into entangling Al-Qaedah in a war with the Houthis and keeping them busy from thinking about striking America. And there are signs that this plot to ignite a sectarian war in Yemen has succeeded, after the bombings on mosques and places of worship of the Houthis, which aims to mobilize the Zaidi sect behind the project of the Houthis.
As for the second step: America attempting to change the convictions of the members of Al-Qaidah and the members of the Jihadi movement; with the futility of the old strategy and convincing them with the need to replace it with a new strategy; which serves the objectives of America. This is the essence around which this analysis revolves, and is it necessary to focus on all the points mentioned in the article.
What is the new strategy of America with which it wants to convince the Jihadi movement? In order to be able to achieve its ultimate goal; withdrawal from the region in safety? Before mentioning the new strategy, it must be clear that Al-Qaedah’s strategy did not come out of vain, but it came after long experiences in resisting the local occupiers, and many attempts to establish an Islamic state. And it became clear to Shaykh Usamah and his Mujahideen, that America stands in front of all Islamic projects, with everything that it posses of economic, military and political power.
It has also been shown to them that it is not possible to establish an independent Islamic state that rules with the Islamic law, as long as America has the power and money. Proof for this is America thwarting the experiences of the Mujahideen in the establishment of Emirates and Islamic governments in Sudan, Algeria, Somalia, Afghanistan and Waziristan, Yemen and Mali. In which very soon the world, headed by America, quickly plotted an economic and military war against them. The Islamic project ended falling and the Mujahideen returned to guerrilla warfare again.
Because of that Al-Qaedah’s leadership viewed that it could not establish an Islamic project, only after the overthrow of America, and ending its control over the world. And if not, any attempt to establish an Islamic project under the American presence is absurd and a waste of efforts and energies. That’s why it adopted a suitable strategy: focusing the efforts on a war with America, and destroying its interests in the world.
In order to drain them economically and militarily, until it is exposed to collapse like the Soviet Union was exposed to it in the past, or at least diminishing it and push it out of the region. This strategy has paid off and exposed America to the greatest economic crisis in its history, it was just around the corner from collapse, if Allah did not decree otherwise, and the whole world stood with it in this economic crisis.
After America escaped from bankruptcy and overcame the economic crisis with difficulty, it will not stand idle to be stung in the hand from the same hole again. It knows that the world will not save it repeatedly; it will not aid them every time. Therefore it began with the plot to change the dangerous strategy of Al-Qaedah in to a new strategy, which severs the US objectives in the region.
The new strategy simply explained: The possibility of establishing an Islamic state which rules with the Sharia and expands under the ears and eyes of America. (4) Then it will be needless to focus the efforts of bringing down America, but this “reality” can be claimed by “force”.
The aim of America to promote this strategy:
- Convince the Jihadi movement that there is no need to direct the war against America and the West, but it would be enough to focus on local enemies: the tyrants, Rawafid, Islamic parties. (5)
- Convince Jihadists around the world by the need to migrate to this Islamic state to participate in the establishment of its pillars and the construction of its structure: so that America and Europe will be safe from lone wolves.
- The elimination of Al-Qaedah and all its branches by promoting the failure of the old strategy, and its inability to fight America compared to the strategy of new Islamic State.
- Gather the most dangerous Jihadi personal and the finest Mujahideen youth in a small part of the world, in order to make it easier for America to exterminate them at any moment.
To complete the series of deceiving the sons of the Jihadi movement, with the usefulness of this new strategy, it is allowed for a group belonging to the Jihadi movement, which has been successfully infiltrated, to adopt this strategy and allow them to achieve field victories in Iraq and Syria, in order to establish an Islamic State over oil resources in the region. So that they will be able finance the promoting of this new strategy.
It is also allowed for them to control huge amounts of heavy and modern weapons, to establish military superiority, which allows them to fight and defeat the Jihadist groups that adhere to the strategy of Al-Qaedah.
To consolidate this new strategy, a group of extremists were planted within the organization to legitimize this strategy, to demonstrate its adherence to the roots of Islamic Sharia. And they highlighted a number of Sharia concepts, to achieve this objective, and the most prominent concepts they demonstrate, focused upon by the members of this group, include:
- The near enemy deserves priority over the far enemy.
- Fighting the apostates deserves priority over fighting the Crusaders.
- Fighting the infidels like the Rawafid deserves priority over fighting the Crusaders.
- The necessity of establishing an Islamic state and establishing its pillars before the fight against the external enemy abroad.
- Obligating to bring people under the banner of the Khalifah and under one leader, before starting the fight against the external enemies abroad.
This grand deception has been circulating on many of the sons of the Jihadi movement. Until many of the sons of this movement began to undermine the structure of Al-Qaedah with their own hands and tongues, and promote the strategy of the cursed America while they do not even realize it.
What these poor ones do not know is that America wants to preoccupy the Mujahideen with internal battles which do not achieve them any victory or honor, and the Hollywood victories achieved by the Islamic State currently, is only a taste of the American deceit of the gullible enthusiastic youth. After having realized the American goals in the region, they will wage a global war against the Mujahideen in Iraq and Syria, along the lines of what they did to the Mujahideen in Iraq in 2006.
And along the lines of what they did in the Emirate of Afghanistan, Abyan (Yemen), Mali and in Somalia before. And the one who thinks that the reality of the Islamic State currently is different from others, then we remind him of the American invasion a couple of days ago on a lifeline of the oil fields (in Raqqah) which resulted in the killing of the senior leader Abu Sayyaf and a number of Iraqi field commanders, and kidnapping the wife of Abu Sayaff and transferring her to an American prison in Iraq! After that the American forces withdrew without any losses! In this lies proof that America exploits them to carry out their goals, and if one of them diverts from the outlined track, he will be subjected to liquidation and detention.
And a witness to all of this is that America inflated ISIS with the success of the new strategy, which will lead to the elimination of Al-Qaedah and ignite sectarian strife. Once America succeeds in its goals, it will burn the instrument ISIS. History will be witness to the most heinous conspiracy against Islam in modern history. But I will not make it too long for you all and stop here, I will return in a second episode inshaAllah with more details.
(1.) The implementation of this conspiracy began in Libya, where ISIS started to fight the battalions belonging to Islamic parties, more than fighting the forces of Hafter.
(2.) ISIS has started bombing Zaydi mosques in Yemen, Sanaa, killing hundreds of them.
(3.) ISIS has bombed the Shia shrine of Ali ibn Abi Talib in Al-Qadih, Qatif.
(4.) Who follows Twitter finds the electronic army of ISIS focuses on the following statement: “Remaining and expanding” and “The strategy of Al-Qaedah has proven to be unsuccessful” and “Al-Qaedah did not achieve anything in 15 years” and “The strategy of ISIS has proven its validity and usefulness”. Which indicates that these are messages from the secret intelligence services to consolidate this strategy.
(5.) The one who follows the electronic army which supports ISIS notices that they incite strongly against; the Surooris, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaedah and Taliban. And cast the issue of “excusing due to ignorance” strongly, and make it the core of all their handling and their dealing with the Islamic parties, to entrench the principle of apostasy and blasphemy, in order to make it easy to fight these parties and preoccupy themselves with it.
The original Arabic analysis (PDF): استراتيجية أمريكا الجديدة في المنطقة